BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN EU: A TIME-VARYING APPROACH

This source preferred by George Filis

Authors: Degiannakis, S., Duffy, D. and Filis, G.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/21570/

Journal: Scottish Journal of Political Economy

Volume: 16

Issue: 4

Pages: 348-370

ISSN: 0036-9292

DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12049

This data was imported from Scopus:

Authors: Degiannakis, S., Duffy, D. and Filis, G.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/21570/

Journal: Scottish Journal of Political Economy

Volume: 61

Issue: 4

Pages: 348-370

eISSN: 1467-9485

ISSN: 0036-9292

DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12049

This article investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on Scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronization correspond to major economic events that have taken place at a European level. In the main, business cycle synchronization until 2007 had moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency, suggesting that the common monetary policy was less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. However, as a result of the Great Recession of 2007 and the subsequent Eurozone Crisis, a number of periphery countries, most notably Greece, have experienced desynchronization of their business cycles with the EU12-wide cycle. Nevertheless, for most countries, any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to a lack of cyclical synchronization. © 2014 Scottish Economic Society.

This data was imported from Web of Science (Lite):

Authors: Degiannakis, S., Duffy, D. and Filis, G.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/21570/

Journal: SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

Volume: 61

Issue: 4

Pages: 348-370

eISSN: 1467-9485

ISSN: 0036-9292

DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12049

The data on this page was last updated at 04:42 on September 24, 2017.