Modelling Tourism and Travel Using Tourism Satellite Accounts and Tourism Policy and Forecasting Models

This source preferred by Adam Blake

Authors: Blake, A., Durbarry, R., Sinclair, M.T. and Sugiyarto, G.

Publisher: Tourism and Travel Research Institute

This paper shows how research with Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSAs) can be complemented and extended by the use of Tourism Policy and Forecasting (TPF) models.

These models integrate information from TSAs into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to provide a leading edge technique for modelling the economic impact of tourism and travel. In contrast to their predecessor, input-output models, the Nottingham TPF models not only include the totality of tourism and travel’s economic impact but also are much more flexible, facilitating their use in other areas, such as tourism planning, policy analysis and forecasting. As such, they are a very powerful tool for policymakers in governments, as well as for business people who are interested in the implications of policy or who wish to plan for the future.

The paper examines TPF modelling for tourism organisations, governments and businesses in the context of the extensive work on TSAs that has been undertaken to date.

TPF models of tourism are then compared with input-output models of tourism’s economic impact. An assessment of the differences between TSAs, input-output modelling and TPF models of tourism and travel’s economic impact is provided. As TPF models of tourism and travel require specific data on tourism expenditures and on the structure of production in tourism characteristic sectors, the use of TSAs in TPF modelling presents a significant improvement in the ability to model tourism and travel.

A summary TPF model for the USA is estimated and three illustrative cases are examined in this paper, namely a rise in foreign tourist expenditure, removal of indirect taxation, and an increase in air transport productivity. In the first case, the indirect effects of an inputoutput model are also presented for ‘cautious comparison’. In each case the results show increases in GDP for most sectors in the economy, while a minority of sectors experience some crowding-out.

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