Deriving simple predictions from complex models to support environmental decision-making

Authors: Stillman, R., Wood, K.A. and Goss-Custard, J.D.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/22116/

Journal: Ecological Modelling

ISSN: 1872-7026

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.014

Recent decades have seen great advances in ecological modelling and computing power, enabling ecologists to build increasingly detailed models to more accurately represent ecological systems. To better inform environmental decision-making, it is important that the predictions of these models are expressed in simple ways that are straightforward for stakeholders to comprehend and use. One way to achieve this is to predict threshold values for environmental perturbations (e.g. climate change, habitat modification, food loss, sea level rise) associated with negative impacts on individuals, populations, communities or ecosystems. These thresholds can be used by stakeholders to inform management and policy. In this paper we demonstrate how this approach can use individual-based models of birds, their prey and habitats, to provide the evidence-base for coastal bird conservation and shellfishery management. In particular, we show how such models can be used to identify threshold values for perturbations of food abundance that can impact negatively on bird populations. We highlight how environmental thresholds could be used more widely to inform management of species and habitats under environmental change.

This data was imported from Scopus:

Authors: Stillman, R.A., Wood, K.A. and Goss-Custard, J.D.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/22116/

Journal: Ecological Modelling

Volume: 326

Pages: 134-141

ISSN: 0304-3800

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.014

© 2015 The Authors. Recent decades have seen great advances in ecological modelling and computing power, enabling ecologists to build increasingly detailed models to more accurately represent ecological systems. To better inform environmental decision-making, it is important that the predictions of these models are expressed in simple ways that are straightforward for stakeholders to comprehend and use. One way to achieve this is to predict threshold values for environmental perturbations (e.g. climate change, habitat modification, food loss, sea level rise) associated with negative impacts on individuals, populations, communities or ecosystems. These thresholds can be used by stakeholders to inform management and policy. In this paper we demonstrate how this approach can use individual-based models of birds, their prey and habitats, to provide the evidence-base for coastal bird conservation and shellfishery management. In particular, we show how such models can be used to identify threshold values for perturbations of food abundance that can impact negatively on bird populations. We highlight how environmental thresholds could be used more widely to inform management of species and habitats under environmental change.

This data was imported from Scopus:

Authors: Stillman, R.A., Wood, K.A. and Goss-Custard, J.D.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/22116/

Journal: Ecological Modelling

ISSN: 0304-3800

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.014

© 2015. Recent decades have seen great advances in ecological modelling and computing power, enabling ecologists to build increasingly detailed models to more accurately represent ecological systems. To better inform environmental decision-making, it is important that the predictions of these models are expressed in simple ways that are straightforward for stakeholders to comprehend and use. One way to achieve this is to predict threshold values for environmental perturbations (e.g. climate change, habitat modification, food loss, sea level rise) associated with negative impacts on individuals, populations, communities or ecosystems. These thresholds can be used by stakeholders to inform management and policy. In this paper we demonstrate how this approach can use individual-based models of birds, their prey and habitats, to provide the evidence-base for coastal bird conservation and shellfishery management. In particular, we show how such models can be used to identify threshold values for perturbations of food abundance that can impact negatively on bird populations. We highlight how environmental thresholds could be used more widely to inform management of species and habitats under environmental change.

This source preferred by Kevin Wood and Richard Stillman

This data was imported from Web of Science (Lite):

Authors: Stillman, R.A., Wood, K.A. and Goss-Custard, J.D.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/22116/

Journal: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Volume: 326

Pages: 134-141

eISSN: 1872-7026

ISSN: 0304-3800

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.014

The data on this page was last updated at 04:38 on September 19, 2017.