Managing media uncertainty by exploring multiple futures
Authors: Oliver, J.J. and Parrett, E.
Journal: Jounral of Media Business Studies
Abstract:The UK Media Industry operates in a highly turbulent environment, and one that is characterised by rapid changes in technology, audience behaviour, new media consumption and the threat of new competitive entrants (Foster 2006; Kung 2008; Oliver, 2012, 2013). This competitive environment makes it difficult for media firms to identify strategies for growth over the long-term. The key driver for change over the past decade has undoubtedly been technological, with multi-platform, multi-channel, mobile and interactive delivery becoming the norm. This technological trend is likely to continue apace with new platforms and means of delivery emerging in the years ahead. At the same time, technology has dis-intermediated value chains (Barwise, and Picard, 2012) and changed the shape of the industry, and particularly within the television sector, to the extent that traditional broadcast media firms no longer act as the sole intermediaries of mediated content. Indeed, innovative Internet Protocal TV (IPTV), Web TV and streaming services provided by the likes BT Vision, Youtube and Amazon Prime are making significant in-roads into traditional audience market share, and particularly amongst the younger demographic. This paper investigates the future of Youtube and its competitive positioning within an industry that is dominated by traditional broadcasters like the BBC, Sky, ITV and Channel 4. In doing so, it presents empirical findings from a scenario planning exercise (Garvin and Levesque, 2006) that involved a range of experienced media industry practitioners who sought to explore the environmental uncertainty surrounding TV providers. The use of Scenario Planning as a management tool is apt, since Oliver (2013:254) found it to be ‘Power Tool’ in the management of UK media firms due to the high levels of usage and satisfaction that companies were reporting. This paper will provide an original contribution to the field of media management by demonstrating how media executives viewed the “turmoil and opportunities caused by changes in the environment and markets in which their media firms operate” (Picard, 2004: 12) and the future competitive positioning of Youtube in the next 10 years.
Source: Manual