Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India.

Authors: Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R.G., van Teijlingen, E. and Unnikrishnan, B.

Journal: Nepal J Epidemiol

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Pages: 738-744

ISSN: 2091-0800

DOI: 10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases. RESULTS: The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala. CONCLUSION: The back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/32206/

Source: PubMed

Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India

Authors: Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R.G., van Teijlingen, E. and Unnikrishnan, B.

Journal: NEPAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Pages: 738-744

ISSN: 2091-0800

DOI: 10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/32206/

Source: Web of Science (Lite)

Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India

Authors: Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R.G., van Teijlingen, E. and Unnikrishnan, B.

Journal: Nepal Journal of Epidemiology

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Pages: 738-744

Publisher: International Nepal Epidemiological Association (INEA)

ISSN: 2091-0800

DOI: 10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

Abstract:

Background: Worldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases.

Materials and Methods: The requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases.

Results: The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala.

Conclusion: The back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/32206/

Source: Manual

Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India.

Authors: Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R.G., van Teijlingen, E. and Unnikrishnan, B.

Journal: Nepal journal of epidemiology

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Pages: 738-744

eISSN: 2091-0800

ISSN: 2091-0800

DOI: 10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

Abstract:

Background

Worldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases.

Materials and methods

The requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases.

Results

The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala.

Conclusion

The back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/32206/

Source: Europe PubMed Central

Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India.

Authors: Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R.G., van Teijlingen, E. and Unnikrishnan, B.

Journal: Nepal Journal of Epidemiology

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Pages: 738-744

ISSN: 2091-0800

Abstract:

Background: Worldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases. Materials and Methods: The requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases. Results: The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala. Conclusion: The back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/32206/

Source: BURO EPrints