Tourism VAT relief: a behavioural cost-benefit analysis with off-peak targeting
Authors: Hesami, S.
Journal: TOURISM REVIEW
Publication Date: 08/04/2026
eISSN: 1759-8451
ISSN: 1660-5373
DOI: 10.1108/TR-11-2025-1360
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/41942/
Source: Web of Science
Tourism VAT relief: a behavioural cost-benefit analysis with off-peak targeting
Authors: Hesami, S.
Journal: Tourism Review
Publication Date: 08/04/2026
Publisher: Emerald
eISSN: 1759-8451
ISSN: 1660-5373
DOI: 10.1108/TR-11-2025-1360
Abstract:Purpose This paper aims to test whether tourism value added tax (VAT) relief delivers welfare gains once fiscal costs and behavioural responses are included, and whether policy design (timing/targeting) matters more than rate depth. It compares uniform year-round VAT cuts with off-peak targeted VAT relief, modelling incomplete pass-through, seasonal demand elasticity and discounted welfare.
Design/methodology/approach A regionally calibrated behavioural cost-benefit simulation is applied to Dorset (UK). Scenarios reduce VAT to 12.5% or 5%, either year-round or only in off-peak months, over a 10-year horizon. The model integrates consumer/producer surplus, employment and fiscal feedbacks; robustness is tested via sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.
Findings VAT cuts increase turnover and employment, but uniform year-round relief does not reach welfare breakeven after discounting fiscal losses. The key contribution is showing that off-peak targeting markedly improves welfare efficiency, producing benefit-cost ratios close to one while cutting fiscal exposure by more than two-thirds versus uniform cuts. Deeper cuts generate larger absolute gains but lower proportional efficiency unless pass-through and demand responsiveness are exceptionally high; overall, timing and targeting dominate rate depth.
Practical implications VAT relief is most defensible as a time-bound, off-peak tool. Effectiveness increases when paired with price transparency, coordinated off-peak marketing and shoulder-season product development to strengthen consumer price signals and incremental demand.
Originality/value The paper advances tourism taxation research by identifying which VAT design maximises welfare efficiency under realistic behaviour, integrating seasonality, incomplete incidence and discounted welfare appraisal in a transferable regional framework.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/41942/
Source: Manual