Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning

Authors: Oliver, J.J. and Parrett, E.

Journal: Strategic Direction

Volume: 33

Issue: 1

Pages: 5-6

ISSN: 0258-0543

DOI: 10.1108/SD-09-2016-0131

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper aims to provide an overview of the role that scenario planning can play in managing the uncertainty caused by changing and unpredictable competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: This viewpoint reflects both the practical experience of strategic planners, combined with an academic insight into the advantages of using scenario planning as a management tool. Findings: Firms can develop corporate level strategy and gain long-term certainty in their strategic approach by using scenario planning to strategize in a way that allows them to prepare for multiple futures, with multiple strategies. Practical implications: Firms can manage environmental uncertainty and turbulence by being “mentally prepared” to address the future by evaluating the critical uncertainties driving turbulence and the strategic options relevant to a number of possible future outcomes. Originality/value: A unique combination of practical experience fused with academic knowledge on harnessing the power of scenario planning to manage uncertainty and develop organizational strategy.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/25929/

Source: Scopus

Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning

Authors: Oliver, J.J. and Parrett, E.

Journal: Strategic Direction

Volume: 33

Issue: 1

Pages: 5-6

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited

ISSN: 1758-8588

DOI: 10.1108/SD-09-2016-0131

Abstract:

Purpose: To provide an overview of the role that Scenario Planning can play in managing the uncertainty caused by changing and unpredictable competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: This viewpoint reflects both the practical experience of strategic planners, combined with an academic insight into the advantages of using Scenario Planning as a management tool. Findings: Firms can develop Corporate Level Strategy and gain long-term certainty in their strategic approach by using Scenario Planning to strategize in a way that allows them to prepare for multiple futures, with multiple strategies.

Practical implications: Firms can manage environmental uncertainty and turbulence by being ‘mentally prepared’ to address the future by evaluating the critical uncertainties driving turbulence and the strategic options relevant to a number of possible future outcomes.

Social implications: Not applicable

Originality/value: A unique combination of practical experience fused with academic knowledge on harnessing the power of Scenario Planning to manage uncertainty and develop organizational strategy.

Keywords: Corporate Level Strategy, Managing Uncertainty, Competitive Dynamics, Strategic Planning, Scenario Planning.

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/25929/

http://www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/

Source: Manual