Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: Annals of Tourism Research
Volume: 88
ISSN: 0160-7383
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Abstract:In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
Source: Scopus
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team.
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: Ann Tour Res
Volume: 88
Pages: 103182
eISSN: 1873-7722
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Abstract:In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
Source: PubMed
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH
Volume: 88
eISSN: 1873-7722
ISSN: 0160-7383
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
Source: Web of Science (Lite)
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: Annals of Tourism Research
Volume: 88
ISSN: 0160-7383
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Abstract:In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
Source: Manual
Preferred by: Adam Blake
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team.
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: Annals of tourism research
Volume: 88
Pages: 103182
eISSN: 1873-7722
ISSN: 0160-7383
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Abstract:In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
Source: Europe PubMed Central
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team
Authors: Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A.
Journal: Annals of Tourism Research
Volume: 88
Issue: 103182
ISSN: 0160-7383
Abstract:In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35734/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016073832100044X?via%3Dihub
Source: BURO EPrints