Complex system analysis of the implications of hydrogen fuel cell trucks in China's road freight transportation

Authors: Zheng, Y., Hou, D., Liu, Y., Zhou, Y. and Xiao, J.

Journal: International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

Volume: 60

Pages: 1449-1461

ISSN: 0360-3199

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.02.231

Abstract:

China's road freight transport volume has dramatically increased over recent years, leading to substantial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles provide a novel approach for the hard-to-abate industrial sector. This research developed a model of China's road freight industry based on an agent-based complex system. The model was utilized to evaluate the diffusion of hydrogen fuel cell truck (HFCT) fleets and their environmental impacts by inspecting five diverse pathways. Wherein Pathway 1 represents the conventional business-as-usual approach, Pathway 2 signifies the potential for technological advancements, Pathway 3 illustrates the application of CCS technology, Pathway 4 showcases the potential for increased production of green hydrogen, while Pathway 5 encompasses a combination of these scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: Truck purchasers are more sensitive to the price of hydrogen than HFCTs, especially heavy-duty truck purchasers. Without policy intervention, HFCTs will have difficulty attracting consumers in the near future. Fossil-based hydrogen production with CCS combined with strengthened fiscal subsidies is the only way to achieve the goal of one million HFCTs by 2035. From the tank-to-wheel perspective, all pathways will reach peak carbon emissions after 2030, which can be completed in 2033 at the earliest. From the standpoint of well-to-wheel, both Pathway 4, which increases the proportion of green hydrogen, and Pathway 3, which introduces carbon capture and storage (CCS) in fossil-based hydrogen production, can achieve significant carbon emission reduction.

Source: Scopus